Saturday, July 3, 2021

Restarting

 Random thoughts


I want to go back to writing.


I feel like writing will help unpack the myriad of thoughts running in my mind and convert them into something tangible.


Do you have that experience or situation where you have so many ideas. You have so many goals but then you spend so much time thinking about planning and about that grand big idea or goal but never had the time to execute it.

Worst. Being very clueless when to start.


I am at that situation.


I want to review my blog

Big idea. 

Post one article per week.

One post to share my thoughts.


I will start with this. Stay tuned.





Wednesday, December 4, 2013

Bubble or No Bubble


I have been reading a lot of articles debating on whether we have a "bubble" or not. After reading the articles, I ignored it and moved on minding my own business. But then I realized, I would not be a good investor if I don't take an opinion on this issue. If I am to be a good investor then I should read the articles, read through the opinion and then decide for my own about what I should do with my hard-earned money.

Real Estate Property for Sale/Investment/Purchase
credit: Denisp12
Here are the articles if you want to read them

 Here's Why The Philippines Economic Miracle is Really A Bubble in Disguise
It is not a Miracle, It is not a bubble


First, let us understand what an "economic bubble" is. As I understand it, economic bubble is used to describe a situation where an economy is growing rapidly and hits a point where everything collapses because the growth was not real but air. You know how a bubble forms in a water then rises rapidly only to pop-out. Same with economics, they coin the term bubble for growth that is not real.



When an analyst predicts a real property bubble, that particular analysts believe that growth is fueled by speculation rather by true demand. Let me try to explain it based on what I know. Real Property developers (those who build offices, condominiums etc), it is assumed, build on a market forecast backed on good research. It means that there is a real demand for offices and houses backed up by purchasing power.


Don't confuse demand with wishes. If you go ask your friends, all will say affirmative if you ask them if they want to have a house of their own. Not surprising because, shelter is one of the basic needs as per Maslow's hierarchy of needs. While all of us dreams of having our own house, not all of us, unfortunately and realistically speaking, can afford it. This is the reason why real estate developers build houses and offices based on real demand and not based on wishes and dreams.



Now, if you look at the prices of offices and condominiums, it would seem that nobody can buy one except for the few rich citizens of our country. And that's the role of banks. Banks offer loans to people who want to buy their own house based on the future potential earning of the individuals. Obtaining a loan is getting money now for the money that you will earn in the future. Again, we don't know what will happen in the future and it is a risk. But banks are in the business of managing risk thus they do credit investigation etc. etc.



With the inclusion of banks in the real estate process, the responsibility of credit check now falls into their hands. Sure, real estate developers still perform market research to estimate how many offices and houses to build. But with the bank's role, these companies now rely on the credit investigation done by banks to see who can really buy one and those who cannot.



The author then shares that according to the World Bank, lending standards have been relaxed, with some local banks raising loan to value ratio of 80 or even 90% in addition to waiving requirements such as proof of income. The proof of income requirement has been waived for many overseas Filipino workers or OFWs who are unable to provide proof of income, yet are able to pay the 20% down payment. There is also evidence that easy-pay mortgages are being offered to home buyers, such as those with zero down payment or low payments in the first few years of loan amortization.



Now, the explanation given for growing middle class and consumer spending boom are the rise of the business process outsourcing sector (read: employment - source of income for Filipinos) and remittances from Overseas Filipino Workers). The author then says that BPO only accounts 4.4% of the country's $250 billion economy. As for the remittances, it accounts for 10.4%. Therefore, the BPO and OFW remittances only accounts for 14.4% of the economy. He further adds that 53% of OFW remittances comes from the US of which majority is from nurses. He adds that these Filipino nurses benefits from the healthcare bubble in the US. If you are reading the news, you know that healthcare is a big ticket item discussed by the US Government. Remember that legal is one of the factors that affects an industry. A negative outcome of the healthcare law may mean losses of jobs for these Filipino nurses. Lost of jobs means lost of remittances. Lost of remittances mean inability to pay back loans.



My Thoughts

It is actually too much information to digest for me. To be honest, I have not changed my stock investments. So I guess, while I have not verbally decided on this issue, my action of not changing my investments mean I am taking the side that there is no property bubble. As my professor said, we are always making decisions whether we make one or not. Not making a decision is also a decision.


One thing bothers me though. Ayala Land and BPI are part of Ayala Group. SMPH/SMDC and BDO are under the same group. These companies posted positive earnings in the past few years. These companies both earn in the property value chain process. I just hope credit checks are really done as they should for new property loans.


Also, who should I believe in. The 28 year old Jesse Colombo or John Mangun who has 25 year experience in the Philippine Market. Again, age should not matter. Then i recall certain CNN Journalist who goes by the name Anderson Cooper criticized by a local news anchor by saying he (Anderson) does not know what he is saying while she is confined in the air conditioned room far away from the devastation area.










The Four Hour Workweek

I was going thru my twitter feed and saw this

via @hecklerforever

LOL. She must be a 30 year old mother. :)


My Twelfth Book


If you have been following my blog, you know that one of my goals for 2013 is to read at least twelve books. I love reading books. However, I realized I have not been reading and learning as much as I can so I decided to put a number for two reasons

  1. To set a goal
  2. What gets measured gets done

Thursday, November 28, 2013

The 17 Ways Rich People Think and Act

Checklist Chalkboard
image credit: Mufidah Kassalias

Hey!


How is it going? I have been busy in the past few weeks working on a new blog that my wife asked me to put up. It is about parenting and more of personal blog. It is a tandem blog and whenever I feel the itch to write, I focused my energy to that blog so I can schedule posts.


It is always easier doing that. Scheduling posts. I know some does not like the idea but I am one of those who only gets the spark to write once in awhile. So whenever that moments comes, I try to write as many article that I can and schedule them ahead of time.



Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Appeal for Help for Victims of Typhoon Haiyan/Yolanda



source: rappler


source: rappler

I personally recommend donating to Unicef. Redcross is also a great organization.

Links

Habitat for Humanity

Tuesday, November 5, 2013

Thinking About Retirement Again

I shared previously that I have started planning and thinking about retirement@ralph11ph commented shared his reason why he is not thinking retirement - what to do with too much idle time. I can't help but agree. Retirement is premised on the assumption that we do not like what we are currently doing. It is not always the case. I know people who love their jobs and love doing it until their physical body will no longer allow them to do it.

Perfect example is my mom. She works in a bank. Some six years ago in her 60th birthday, she had a grand birthday celebration.


Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Quick Win of the Week: Learn to Eye Gaze

via left hand


It is a tendency especially for us Asians, to avoid staring in the eye. It is interpreted as being rude.

However, for this week, I am encouraging you to do this exercise. Learn how to look people in the eye.

As you go through your day, try to catch people's eye and hold it for two minutes. Do this with strangers or with people you are not really close with. Hold it until the other person looks away. 

Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...